One of the advantages of running a business is that it's possible to see further ahead than many people in the general public and even the media. Not all business owners choose to take advantage of that opportunity; those that don't tend to suffer the consequences.

It has been obvious to me for some years that an economy based on ever-expanding debt growth is not sustainable. In January 2007 I made a bet with a friend that the UK economy would be in recession by the end of Q2 2008. Arguably I was wrong by a month or so, but the detail doesn't matter; what had seemed impossible a mere 18 months earlier is now widely accepted as likely to happen, if not happening already.

Even if a technical recession (two or more quarters of negative GDP growth) is avoided, it's obvious that the party has ended. That has profound implications for many businesses.

The bet was a side-issue. What I was doing in the meantime was positioning Unusual Publishing Ltd (the business that runs IT Reviews) to weather the coming storm.

Anyone can run a successful business in boom times, because there's so much money sloshing around trying to find a home. But when incomes are squeezed by inflation, negative real wage growth and high overall taxation, it becomes much harder to make a living, and poorly-run companies go to the wall. As they should; although unpleasant, a recession is an essential part of the economic cycle.

"You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out" - variously attributed to Warren Buffett and Victor Kiam.

Here at IT Reviews we're wearing a full wetsuit with scuba gear, flippers and harpoon.